When the problem is framed this way, 87% of doctors get it right, as do a majority of people. Of the 990 women without breast cancer 89 will test positive (that’s the 9% false-positive rate).Ī woman tests positive. (That’s the 90% sensitivity of the test.) (That’s the base rate, or the 1% prevalence.) Think a sample of 1000 women, 10 of whom have breast cancer. They are neglecting the base rate (only 1%).īayesian Reasoning About Medical Diagnosis:įorget the generic “a woman” (because an individual either has or doesn’t have cancer). Most popular answer (incl from MDs): 80–90% What is the probability she has breast cancer? Sensitivity of the test for breast cancer is 90% Paradigm Case of Medical Diagnosis & Base Rate Neglect: If you live in North America and you hear hoof steps outside your house, think horse not zebra Y (at 95%) is the explanation or something else (at 5%)? The entire extraterrestrial hypothesis is based on the residue of data left over after the above list has been exhausted. The reason has to do with Signal Detection Theory, Bayesian Reasoning and the Base Rate effect.Īccording to Kean, “roughly 90 to 95 percent of UFO sightings can be explained” as “weather balloons, flares, sky lanterns, planes flying in formation, secret military aircraft, birds reflecting the sun, planes reflecting the sun, blimps, helicopters, the planets Venus or Mars, meteors or meteorites, space junk, satellites, swamp gas, spinning eddies, sundogs, ball lightning, ice crystals, reflected light off clouds, lights on the ground or lights reflected on a cockpit window” and more. The likeliest hypothesis is #1: ordinary terrestrial.
The quality of evidence in evaluating UFO claims, Separating two questions: Are they out there? Have they come here? The Believer’s Paradox: if the evidence is substantial enough to believe, where is it and why don’t others believe? What it was like working for the Ministry of Defense as their UFO expert? He’s spoken at the National Press Club, the Royal Albert Hall, the Science Museum and the Global Competitiveness Forum, and has debated at the Oxford Union and the Cambridge Union Society. Nick Pope gives talks and takes part in academic conferences, fan conventions, and debates all around the world.
#Pope alien news tv#
He’s also written for the New York Times, for the BBC News website and for NBC’s technology and science site, and has acted as consultant and spokesperson on numerous alien-themed movies, TV shows, and video games. He’s made appearances on numerous TV news shows and documentaries, including Good Morning America, Nightline, Tucker Carlson Tonight and Ancient Aliens. Nick is the media’s go-to person for UFOs. He’s recognized as one of the world’s leading experts on UFOs, the unexplained, and conspiracy theories. Author, journalist and TV personality Nick Pope ran the British government’s UFO program for the Ministry of Defense, leading the media to call him the real Fox Mulder.
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